Ahead of today's expected April sales figures from NPD, Lazard's Colin Sebastian and fantasy video game prediction market simExchange have predicted sales up 15-20 percent, and another strong month for Nintendo's Wii and DS.
Said Sebastian, "We estimate that software sales increased 15%-20% in April according to our 'back-of-the-envelope' analysis," adding that the month should see
Pokemon, Super Paper Mario, Guitar Hero II, F.E.A.R., and
Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter 2 topping software sales.
On the hardware front, Sebastian said April should look fairly similar to March's sales, "with strong demand for Nintendo’s Wii and DS (despite supply constraints) and slow sell-through of Microsoft’s Xbox 360 and Sony’s PS3. According to Sony management, there was a 40% lift in PSP hardware sales following the April price cut."
Fantasy video game prediction market simExchange, which aggregates predictions from multiple users of its service, offered its own similar take on the hardware numbers based on user participation, predicting Nintendo DS moving 537,800 units, the Wii 311,800 units, Xbox 360 selling 193,400 units, PSP selling 189,700 units, and finally, the PS3 showing 112,700 units in sales.
Looking at individual publishers, Sebastian said Activision should see the best results, "up at least 150% over last year based on strong sales of
Guitar Hero II on the Xbox 360, initial sales of
Spider-Man III, catalog titles
Guitar Hero II for the PS2 and
Call of Duty 3, and a relatively easy year-over-year comparison."
Electronic Arts, he said, should see sales "down approximately 15% in April with no significant new releases during the month," and THQ "up slightly over last year on an easy year-over-year comparison, but no significant new releases for the month."
