The end of the end of the console

When it comes to gaming, I’m an equal opportunity offender. I don’t distinguish between platforms and don’t get locked into owning one over another. As if you could only know the true experiential richness that games offer through the lens of a single platform. Nonsense! And so, yes, I own it all, and, yes, I am that grown man you’ll see on a plane excitedly playing his 3DS XL. There is no guilt in my pleasure.

As I’m setting up my meeting schedule for E3, I’m reminded that a year ago analysts were falling over themselves to stake the claim: the Death of the Console. Which, as it turns out, was greatly exaggerated. Already the XOne and PS4 have sold twelve million units combined. It may yet be a bit too early to call bullshit on all the analysts, but in February the XOne broke record selling over 60% more units than the X360 did at the same point in its lifecycle.

But then again, this console cycle isn’t like any other cycle before.

It’s a console. But digital.

For years, the console business has tried to integrate digital distribution into its offering. I remember anxiously plugging in my brand new Dreamcast, holding my breath as it connected to the Interwebs. Of course, nothing much happened, but that was largely because publishers weren’t really set up to develop and facilitate online game play. Today, that’s a different story. Today the success of franchises like Call of Duty and Grand Theft Auto Online tells us that publishers have made the digital console key to their strategies. Already we’re seeing the market for additional downloadable content on consoles grow. In April total spending on digital console reached £27 million in the US, up from £19 million a year ago, and £5 million in the United Kingdom, up from £3.7 million.

Source: SuperData Research.

Free-to-play on console. Oh, the humanity.

Yes, yes, I know. Free-to-play is evil. And adding in-game item shops to premium console titles is publishers double-dipping, right? Well, frankly, it’s not. Free-to-play is a pricing strategy that allows playing a game for a while to try it out. On the open web and on mobile, it’s a practice that so far has gone ungoverned. Apple has been working to protect children from being duped into spending their parent’s money, but that’s the most of it. On closed platforms like consoles, manufacturers and publishers are keen to ensure their audience is happy. Remember, the combined install base for the PS4 and XOne totals twelve million units. Unlike the massive audiences for mobile and social network-based games, the console market will be careful to not suck the life out of their audiences. In the walled garden of the console, you can expect to be treated like royalty.

A return to core values.

What I’m expecting to see at E3 this year is a bigger and badder console market than before. Consoles will be going all in on marketing and PR to quickly build a large audience base. To do so, they’ll likely simplify their message, offer fewer fads and fewer plastic peripherals, reduce their price point and focus on triple A gaming.

So I’m excited to get to Los Angeles. Because the way I see it the console isn’t dead. It’s evolving.