Though many online titles are adopting the free-to-play model, market analyst firm Screen Digest says revenues for subscription-based MMOs in the West will grow to nearly $2 billion by 2014.
The group's latest report,
"Subscription MMOGs - Mixed Fortunes in High Risk Game", says the subscription market for massively multiplayer online titles in North America and Europe was worth $1.4 billion in 2008 and $1.6 billion in 2009.
Screen Digest's study expects a compound annual growth rate for subscription consumer rates of 4.9 percent in the next five years, while the number of subscription accounts in the West will expand to 13 million by the end of 2010.
Despite those favorable estimates and Screen Digest's confidence that subscriptions will "continue to play an important role" in the MMO sector, the company's report notes a few troubling trends, such as the nearly 10 percent drop in average revenue per user last year, due to the "popularity of cheaper premium subscription services".
The firm also describes the market to be "very fragmented" at an operator level, as a large number of services are finding it difficult to break the 200,000 subscription level and compete with much bigger competitors.
Activision Blizzard, the biggest operator in the subscription-based MMO space with
World of Warcraft, controlled a 56 percent share of consumer revenues in 2009, though that was down from the 60 percent it had in 2008.
