In his latest notes to investors, Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter has predicted a 47 percent rise in overall sales for the month of September, driven primarily by Halo 3
, which also leads to expectations that the Xbox 360 will outsell the Wii.
Pachter suggests that video game sales will reach $655 million, up from last year's $445 million. $200 million is predicted to have come from Halo 3
alone. Pachter predicts $530 million of that figure will be games sold for next-gen game platforms, and $125 million will be current-gen.
Apart from Halo
, Pachter expects The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass, Heavenly Sword,
to be top new sellers, as well as continued strong sales of Madden NFL 08, Wii Play, Metroid Prime 3: Corruption
, and Guitar Hero
Looking at the hardware breakdown, Pachter, now officially partnering with fantasy video game prediction market simExchange, has offered platform by platform estimations from both:
Xbox 360 - 450,000
DS - 430,000
Wii - 425,000
PSP - 252,000
PS2 - 220,000
PS3 - 150,000
GBA - 65,000
DS - 493,000
Wii - 481,000
Xbox 360 - 400,000
PSP - 283,000
PS3 - 165,000
"Our forecasts for the Wii and the DS reflect our belief that supplies remain somewhat constrained," explained Pachter, "particularly for the Wii... Our Xbox 360 forecast (up from 277,000 units last month) reflects an expected boost in hardware sales due to the introduction of Halo 3
Citing a number of the recent bundles and price cuts -- expected cuts for the 80GB PS3 and a new 40GB model, a cut for the PS2 to $99, and the recent Xbox 360 bundle with Forza
and Marvel Ultimate Alliance
-- Pachter concludes with optimism about software and hardware sales through the end of the season.
Noting that "Nintendo remains the least promotional of the three hardware manufacturers due to the strength of its Wii, with demand expected to outstrip supply well into next year," Pachter says that "should hardware sales trend much higher for the balance of the year, we are prepared to revise our 19% sales growth estimate upward."