October's NPD results will be down again, says Cowen Group analyst Doug Creutz, predicting a 9 percent year-over-year decline in software sales thanks to comparisons to last year's big Fable II
and Fallout 3
Overall, the analyst says the month's U.S. console retail results, which release November 12, will see console and handheld software alone down 8 percent, separately from PC game sales -- which are forecast to see a 27 percent drop year over year.
This season's slate of releases generally features more new IP than established hits, which means big launch numbers are more challenging, according to Creutz. The top title is expected to be reliable followup Uncharted 2
, he says.
But that's not to say it's all weak news for new IP. October also saw the release of Take-Two's Borderlands
, a property with which most audiences had relatively little familiarity at the time of its release.
But according to Creutz's channel checks, he estimates the title sold about 500,000 units in the States during the month, which means it's on track to beat his estimates of 1.2 million units in its first year.
On the other hand, music genre giant DJ Hero
looks set to disappoint, according to Creutz, who estimates only about 200,000 units sold in the region for Activision's turntable-equipped genre refresh during the month.