Electronic Arts' upcoming
Sims 3 could sell over 4 million units in 2009, says Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey -- although he expects that a demographic transition toward newer entertainment forms like Nintendo's Wii and DS might weigh on the title.
Sims 2 sold an estimated 3.5 units in calendar 2004, so the analyst expects the anticipated sequel to outdo its predecessor. EA also
detailed today the game's digital distribution-heavy, points-based model for further monetization, although Hickey doesn't project how much
Sims 3 can expect to earn incrementally from DLC and expansions.
He also expects that piracy is a potential risk for
Sims 3 sales -- "
Spore sales were likely dramatically impacted by piracy," Hickey says.
Hickey also expects the upcoming
Harry Potter release to sell about 3.2 million units sold-in, based on EA's own prior projection of $120 million in sales.
"We are less excited about the Company’s Dragon Age release, new IP with unproven market demand," the analyst says. "We approximate the game could sell-in 1.3 million units. We are mystified at how management could characterize the game as being 'too high' of a quality."
