Activision and Electronic Arts may have just had an exchange of words in the press, but this fall, the two publishers' competing first-person shooters will square off at retail -- and one analyst believes that EA may be seriously challenged in its
stated ambitions to seize the category from its rival.
"We are increasingly concerned about the prospects for
Medal of Honor," says Kaufman Bros. analyst Todd Mitchell. "The game is not developing the level of buzz necessary to knock
Call of Duty off its perch."
Medal of Honor launches October 12, while Activision's
Call of Duty: Black Ops is set to hit November 9. Both games have drawn attention with their share of controversy.
Earlier this year, the drama surrounding the departure of
Modern Warfare house Infinity Ward's Jason West and Vince Zampella -- and the subsequent exodus of many of that studio's employees to the pair's new studio, Respawn Entertainment -- led many analysts to express concern about a trickle-down effect on the
Call of Duty brand and Treyarch's upcoming installment.
As for
Medal of Honor, its
most recent headlines concerned the controversy about the option for players to assume the role of Taliban insurgents in the game's multiplayer modes.
But despite media attention, Mitchell says it's the launch timing that might damage
Medal of Honor's prospects, calling it "ill-timed, sandwiched between the September 14 release of Microsoft's
Halo: Reach, which
recorded $200 million in first-day sales, and the November 9 release of
Call of Duty: Black Ops."
The increasing lifespan of titles with strong multiplayer components may come to bear on the fall-holiday shooter sales battle; after almost a year as the most-played title on Xbox Live,
Modern Warfare 2 was
at last unseated by
Halo: Reach.
And according to analysts,
Black Ops preorders are
outpacing those of Modern Warfare 2, which set new industry unit sales and revenue records at launch. Although few expect
Black Ops, less pedigreed than the
Modern Warfare brand, to top that performance, analysts say it
could sell some 10 to 12 million units in its first year, an uncommonly good showing.
There is quite likely plenty of overlap in the audiences for
Reach,
Medal of Honor and
Black Ops, and it's possible it could take some time before
Reach wears off on gamers. "We really don't see a rationale for owning all three of these games," Mitchell says.
