In this 2019 GDC panel Christopher Langmuir, Theresa Duringer and Tanya X. Short give realistic examples of how to run a small game studio without a surprise runaway hit.
It was well worth watching because each shed light on the practical realities of what it takes to make it as a small team (in this case, each 4-10 people in business for ~5 or so years) in the game industry, something so many studios do without ever having the benefit of a surprise hit.
And even if one of your games does happen to make a big splash, chances are that kind of "overnight success" is the result of years of hard work, planning, and investment. Duringer, Short, and Langmuir each offered useful perspective on how to put in that work effectively, and how to keep your studio afloat throughout.
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